The Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale will look quite different this year with only 5,000 fans allowed on the grounds per day due to COVID-19 protocols. Still, a star-studded field is in attendance during the week of Super Bowl LV. Below, we look at the 2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open odds, and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.
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The field includes six of the top-nine golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings, as Webb Simpson tries to defend his 2020 title. Dustin Johnson (No. 2) and Bryson DeChambeau (No. 5) are competing in the European Tour’s Saudi International.
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2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open betting picks – Favorite
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 5:32 a.m. ET.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
Matsuyama, who won here in 2016 and 2017, shares just the sixth-best odds this week. At No. 19, he’s the 12th-best golfer in the field by the measure of the Golfweek rankings. He finished just T-53 last week at the Farmers Insurance Open following a T-19 at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
Matsuyama struggled in all areas last week, but he’s averaging 1.51 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green through 29 measured rounds on the 2020-21 PGA Tour season. He has been undone by 0.47 strokes lost per round with the putter. A return to a venue where he has had considerable success on the greens presents a get-right spot.
Matsuyama leads those in the field with a minimum of five rounds played at TPC Scottsdale with 2.87 strokes gained on the field per round. He tied for 16th here last year with 1.93 SG: Tee-to-Green and 1.50 SG: Approach per round. He lost 0.21 strokes per round putting.
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2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open betting picks – Contender
Russell Henley (+7000)
Henley took last week off following a missed cut at The American Express in California. He previously tied for 11th at the Sony Open.
The 24th-ranked golfer in the Golfweek rankings played some of his best golf late last summer into the fall. Four of his six top-10 finishes in 2020 came between mid-August and late October. He’s 13th among all golfers with 1.69 SG: Tee-to-Green on the 2020-21 season.
The three-time PGA Tour winner missed the cut in four of the last seven runnings of this event, but he also has finishes of T-15 (2019) and T-16 (2017) mixed in. He has averaged 0.14 strokes gained on the field over 24 career rounds at TPC Scottsdale.
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2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open betting picks – Long shot
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Dylan Frittelli (+12500)
Frittelli is 96th in the Golfweek rankings following a T-53 finish last week. It was his first event of 2021 after he finished his 2020 schedule with a third-place finish in his home country’s South African Open three weeks after his surprise T-5 finish at the 2020 Masters.
He played this event for the first time last year and finished just T-63 with 1.81 strokes lost per round from tee-to-green and 1.34 strokes lost off-the-tee. He’s gaining strokes in both of those areas through 20 measured rounds (26 total) on the 2020-21 season.
His lone PGA Tour victory to date came at the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. The courses grade similarly with an emphasis on driving accuracy.
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